{"id":2089,"date":"2019-03-29T05:35:49","date_gmt":"2019-03-29T04:35:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/globalfraudforensics.com\/fraudxpose\/?p=2089"},"modified":"2019-03-28T20:28:40","modified_gmt":"2019-03-28T19:28:40","slug":"florida-men-behind-bars-1st-degree-murder-convictions-mean-more-killings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/globalfraudforensics.com\/fraudxpose\/florida-men-behind-bars-1st-degree-murder-convictions-mean-more-killings\/","title":{"rendered":"Florida Men Behind Bars: 1st-Degree Murder Convictions Mean More Killings"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">by\u00a0<strong><a style=\"color: #000000;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.forensicmag.com\/node\/13941\">Seth Augenstein<\/a>\u00a0&#8211; Senior Science Writer &#8211;\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong><a style=\"color: #000000;\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/@SethAugenstein\">@SethAugenstein<\/a><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">A series of academic studies in Europe and elsewhere have seemed to indicate that killers don\u2019t necessarily go on to kill again.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">But a new study of Florida men behind bars for 1<sup>st<\/sup>-degree murder makes a clear statistical correlation: murderers have a significantly higher likelihood of killing again,\u00a0<a style=\"color: #000000;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S2589871X19300555\">according to a new study in the journal\u00a0<em>Forensic Science International: Synergy<\/em><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The implications for the thousands of unsolved cold cases in America is clear: look at those who have already tried their hand at killing, write the authors, from Iowa State University.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u201cThe United States is in midst of an emerging justice paradigm where cold cases\u2014often decades old\u2014are being solved with the proliferation of genetic data that are publicly available,\u201d write the authors. \u201cA non-trivial number of these offenders had 1<sup>st<\/sup>-degree murder arrests or convictions in their offending history \u2026 the current study indicates this type of criminal activity has rich criminological forensic value.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The statistical analysis included 682 male convicted felons incarcerated by the Florida Department of Corrections as of 2013, selected for the study using filters for \u201cmurder\u201d and \u201cother violent crime\u201d as part of a larger academic study.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The inmate population was selected, and the raw criminal data only included offenses within the state of Florida\u2014and therefore did not include criminal career data, such as that from the National Crime Information Center.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Of the 682 Florida men, more than 61 percent did not have a homicide for their instant offense. Twenty-six percent were convicted of one homicide, 7.2 percent of two, 2.8 percent of three, and 1.6 percent of four homicides. One offender was convicted of five killings, another inmate of seven, and another prisoner of eight homicides.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Covariates established were prior violent crimes, prior weapons use, armed rape, among others\u2014including two demographic covariates used for the African-American race category.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Negative binomial regression models, and logistic regression models, were used to determine whether the killers were likely to have killed before.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Despite criminal careers progressing in \u201cintermittent and unpredictable ways,\u201d the correlation was clear: killers kill again.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u201cThe current findings are supportive of work that has demonstrated continuity in homicide offending,\u201d write the two sociologists, and a forensic science graduate student. \u201cIn six of the nine regression models, prior 1<sup>st<\/sup>-degree murder was significantly associated with current homicide offending, and a seventh association was nearly significant.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u201cMoreover, prior 1<sup>st<\/sup>-degree murder was significant for all specification of multiple homicide offending and conferred 185 percent, 198 percent, and 198 percent increased odds across models,\u201d they add. \u201cStatistically and substantively, these are large effects.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Armed rape was another serious offense correlation. Prior crimes of this type brought with them as much as 725 percent increased odds of killing later, according to the stats.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The previous \u201cstriking paucity\u201d of research on murder recidivism included a study of Finnish killers published in 1996 which found that of 1089 killers, \u201cjust 36 offenders\u201d killed again. Another was a 2007 study of 336 convicted murderers sentenced to the New Jersey Department of Corrections system between 1990 and 2000; the follow-ups taken after 5 years found criminal recidivism, but zero further homicides.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">But the latest study finds that whatever the psychiatric conditions or troubled upbringing, killers tend to kill way more than non-killers.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u201cIn the negative binomial regression model where multiple counts of homicide convictions were considered, and in the logistic regression model where multiple homicide offending was the outcome variable, prior 1<sup>st<\/sup>-degree murder convictions were\u00a0<em>always<\/em> significant,\u201d they write (author&#8217;s italics). \u201cIn other words, as the dependent variable evidenced greater extremity in the magnitude of violence, prior 1<sup>st<\/sup>-degree murder convictions became more salient.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><a style=\"color: #000000;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.forensicmag.com\/topics\/forensic-psychology\">Forensic Psychology<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/www.forensicmag.com\/news\/2019\/03\/florida-men-behind-bars-1st-degree-murder-convictions-mean-more-killings<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; by\u00a0Seth Augenstein\u00a0&#8211; Senior Science Writer &#8211;\u00a0 @SethAugenstein &nbsp; A series of academic studies in Europe and elsewhere have seemed to indicate that killers don\u2019t necessarily go on to kill again. But a new study of Florida men behind bars for 1st-degree murder makes a clear statistical correlation: murderers have a significantly higher likelihood of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2090,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[21,23,1,20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2089","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-forensics","category-international","category-news","category-security"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Florida Men Behind Bars: 1st-Degree Murder Convictions Mean More Killings - Fraud Xpos\u00e9<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/globalfraudforensics.com\/fraudxpose\/florida-men-behind-bars-1st-degree-murder-convictions-mean-more-killings\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Florida Men Behind Bars: 1st-Degree Murder Convictions Mean More Killings - Fraud Xpos\u00e9\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&nbsp; by\u00a0Seth Augenstein\u00a0&#8211; Senior Science Writer &#8211;\u00a0 @SethAugenstein &nbsp; A series of academic studies in Europe and elsewhere have seemed to indicate that killers don\u2019t necessarily go on to kill again. 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by\u00a0Seth Augenstein\u00a0&#8211; Senior Science Writer &#8211;\u00a0 @SethAugenstein &nbsp; A series of academic studies in Europe and elsewhere have seemed to indicate that killers don\u2019t necessarily go on to kill again. But a new study of Florida men behind bars for 1st-degree murder makes a clear statistical correlation: murderers have a significantly higher likelihood of&hellip;","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9QymB-xH","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/globalfraudforensics.com\/fraudxpose\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2089","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/globalfraudforensics.com\/fraudxpose\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/globalfraudforensics.com\/fraudxpose\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalfraudforensics.com\/fraudxpose\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalfraudforensics.com\/fraudxpose\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2089"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/globalfraudforensics.com\/fraudxpose\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2089\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalfraudforensics.com\/fraudxpose\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2090"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/globalfraudforensics.com\/fraudxpose\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2089"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalfraudforensics.com\/fraudxpose\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2089"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/globalfraudforensics.com\/fraudxpose\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2089"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}